Social Security’s 2027 COLA estimate is out as inflation cools
The latest inflation data may signal a modest cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients, according to a new projection.
The Consumer Price Index released Tuesday reported inflation easing to 3.5% for the 12 months ending in June, down from 4.2% for the 12 months ending in May.
Seniors on Social Security saw a 2.8% cost-of-living increase in benefits for 2026.
Payments are adjusted each January to reflect rising consumer costs. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy group, estimates the 2027 Social Security COLA will be 3.8%, a full percentage point higher than this year’s boost. That matches the group’s May estimate and is down slightly from its 3.9% forecast in April. It’s a big jump from the 2.8% increase TSCL projected earlier this year.
A 3.8% increase in benefits would raise the average Social Security check by about $74, from an estimated $1,938 to $2,011, the TSCL said.
The average COLA increase over the past 10 years has been 3.1%.
Read more: How to find out your 2026 Social Security COLA increase
COLA increases often lag inflation reports
Still, continued changes in the CPI may affect that estimate before the Social Security Administration announces the official COLA adjustment for 2027 in October.
Energy costs play a significant role in consumer costs, and the June CPI report found that those expenses dipped during the short-lived Middle East ceasefire. As the conflict has reignited, gasoline prices have bounced higher.
